Wednesday, June 29, 2011

The importance of paying attention to relationships

The other day I conducted an interview with Chair of Cornell University's Department of History, Barry Strauss. We talked about a few subjects, mainly his assertion that the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan could result in the downfall of the American Empire. I got a total of three articles from the interview, two Q&A format and one narrative (yet to be written) on the economic ascendency of China.

The second article, American Power Depends on the Threat of Military Intervention, Says Expert, I was told, was pitched for the front page at Yahoo.com by my news editor. Alas, it seems to have faced too much competition for that spot, but it's still nice to know that my editor, at least thought it merited front page placement in conjunction with the President's speech on June 29th.

It was also nice to hear the following from Cornell's Press Relations Office after they were published:
 
"Brad,

Both of these Q&As are great, you guys had one epic conversation!  You always do a top-notch, professional job with our professors, thank you!

Cheers,
Syl
-- 
Press Relations Office
Cornell University"
 
As I mentioned in an earlier post about finding interview candidates, Most universities and larger private companies have a press relations office or at least a person responsible for press and public relations. Establishing a dialogue with them can help open doors within the organization, and even help give you a priority pass to the source if something really big happens within the organization.

Let's say, for example, that I want to interview the new head coach or Heismann Trophy candidate quarterback at a prestigious football university leading up to some important bowl game. Although the sports perss relations may be run out of a different office entirely, it's usually a pretty good bet that the main press relations office can get me through with a good recommendation, if I've taken the time to communicate with them on other issues so that they know me and the quality of my work.

I'm not saying you can't challenge your interviewees, or even call bull#&$! on some of their statements if appropriate (in a professionally worded manner, of course). I'm just saying be fair, be honest, and be communicative. Send a link back to the press office after the article is published with a thank you note. Not only will it keep you top of mind, but who knows, they may link your article from their press page.

As a journalist, as in most professions, it, literally, pays to pay attention to personal relationships with everyone with whom you come into contact in the course of your work.

Enjoying the process

I've already remarked about how much I enjoy conducting interviews. They offer me a unique learning experience that I've compared to a private one-on-one college class tailored specifically to me. I can ask anything and drill down on anything that interests me. I'm a curious person, so that is very satisfying.

I just spent an hour talking with the CEO of one of the country's largest fireworks companies for a couple of Fourth of July question and answer pieces requested by Y!CN. It occurred to me afterwards that the feeling I get after completeing an interview is very similar to, though at a somewhat lesser level than the rush I used to get just after finishing a kick-boxing match. Back in the day, I'd walk around with my feet several feet off the ground for days after a fight, while it was diminished if I didn't do well in the fight, it was still there. I actually get that same feeling after a good interview, although my feet may only be a few inches of the ground by comparison.

I feel good, fully energized, awake and... fully present, I guess.  At any rate, I just wanted to take a minute to say how much I really love my work.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Natural disasters: Am I at risk?

One of the ways we can find original angles for a news event is to think about what we ourselves would like to know about the event. When natural disasters strike, for example, everyone's first thoughts, of course, go toward the victims. What is the scale of the catastrophe and how can we help? As we read more and more about the devastation and see photos and video of the aftermath, no matter what the cause, we start to wonder if it could happen here? Am I at risk? That's only natural.

In the case of the devastating Japanese earthquake in March of 2011, there were actually two interconnected disasters, three if you count the resulting nuclear power plant radiation leaks. The earthquake itself triggered a massive tsunami that washed entire villages out to sea with just a few minutes warning.

The east coast of the United States has been spared from disasters like these although it does face hurricane risks each year. Have we just been lucky, or is the east coast relatively immune from these kinds of cataclysmic events? I spoke an expert in plate tectonics and geological science to find out.

Dr. James Tull, a professor of geological sciences at Florida State University, explains the risk and history of major earthquakes in areas of the United States away from the well-know west coast fault lines: Q&A: Earthquake risk in the eastern United States.

Dr. Tull also discusses the risk of major tsunami damage in the United States, including the west coast:
Could a catastrophic tsunami hit the United States?

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

ROR: Maximizing your return on research

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I have a number of "beats" or automatically recurring assignments at the Yahoo! Contributor Network. All the news beat articles that I submit end up published at Yahoo! News. One of the beats is an open topic Question and Answer format beat meant for original interviews. It is the one that pays the most upfront. It's a beat I proposed, and for which I negotiated the upfront rate.

Lately, I have been getting additional interview assignments outside of my regular beat for Y! News. These interview assignments tend to be more highly targeted. Sometimes they'll ask for an interview with someone who possesses a particular expertise and, at least once, they even asked for a specific individual by name.  Obviously, these rely on my ability to get in touch with the specific individual requested in order for me to complete the assignments.

These assignments tell me in the details that I am the only one receiving the assignment so if I don't want to claim it or can't get the sprecific individual to agree to an interview, to email them back and let them know so they can plan accordingly. The first one of these I received, I refused as the offered upfront was less than my standing offer for my Q&A beat. When I pointed this out, they increased the offer and I accepted.

Once I have my interview material, there are often several different angles the article can take or it might be one longer article covering several topics that were discussed. Generally, I shoot an email back to the Y!CN contact who requested the interview and propose several different angles. For example, recently I was asked to interview someone who had direct involvment with the space shuttle. I managed to get George Whitesides who was the Chief of Staff for Administrator Bolden at NASA until around the middle of 2010.

After a great discussion, I had what seemed like four possible main thrusts for an article. Since the original assignment said that Y!CN had reason to believe that they might get featured placement on the front page of Yahoo.com for the assigned interview, I wanted to run the angles by my contact to see if one was preferred given their front page plans. My four proposed angles were:

I though they might want option #2 and/or #4. My contact said he'd ask the Yahoo! front page people what they wanted, but he, personally thought they were all excellent.

So, without dragging out this story any longer, my Y!CN contact said that he didn't get a preference from Yahoo! so I should write up all four angles (without duplicating any of the actual interview material). That meant four separate upfront payments totalling $120 for this interview (plus the usual ongoing page view royalties).

This kind of multiple payout for these interviews has happened several times recently and it changes the financial equation and makes them much more worthwhile. While page view bonuses can exceed the upfront payment, sometimes by a wide margin, there is no guarantee of that, and sometimes they don't do well at all. I prefer to get a decent upfront so that if page views don't come in as expected, my time is still covered.

The Bottom Line

Whatever kinds of research you do, look for ways to use that research in multiple ways. Don't just respin it, nobody wants to read the same thing restated, but apply different aspects of what you learned to different angles. Getting multiple quality articles out of your research makes it economically feasible to spend more time doing higher quality research which, in turn, increases the quality of your articles and their usefulness to your readers.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Networking and contact lists

An interview with a newsmaker, subject matter expert, corporate executive or anyone else benefits a journalist in two ways. First you get the interview and can use it for one or more articles right away. Second, it provides you with a resource for future articles. If you keep good records, over time, you'll develop your own Rolodex of database of experts and newsmakers that you can contact to comment on relevant news stories.

For example, I interviewed the Polling Director at the University of New Hampshire for a story on GOP infighting in New Hampshire during the 2010 election season. He, of course, is an expert on polling methodologies, politics (national and local), and political history. At the conclusion of the interview, I made sure I had all his preferred contact information and he invited me to call him for a comment anytime. So, every time there's a primary, debate, election, or other political development (a President receives a public approval polling bump after a notorious terrorist is killed, for example), I have a source who can provide an expert opinion and who is just a phone call away.

One advantage of using these types of contacts for comments is that your article will have 100% original and newsworthy content that isn't found anywhere else on the web or in print. Another is that you automatically have  original and possibly local (if your source is local to your region) angles for almost any national news event once you have a good selection of sources in your file. This should translate into higher upfront payments (at places like Yahoo! Contributor Network), more opportunities, and more incoming links to your articles, from top bloggers and from other well-ranked news sites.

Ideally, you'll have multiple sources for each news category or topic. That offers you the ability to have different viewpoints on the same topic or lets you highlight the fact that multiple experts agree. Multiple original sources within an article give your article much stronger credibility and authority.

Once you've collected many sources, however, you may have trouble remember who is who and what they know. I use a Rolodex-like system of paper cards. OK, I admit that I'm old-fashioned. An electronic database would probably work as well, but I find the paper system faster as it doesn't require me to spend time opening the program or worrying about overtaxing my poor overworked laptop CPU.



A database, however, offers you the ability to search multiple fields which is a major aid in finding topic matter experts. To mimic this in my Rolodex system, I file each contact on two or more cards. One is a standard contact card, filed alphabetically by the contact's name (or company, if that is more relevant). The other is like a library's subject matter files. I file it under the particular topic or topics of expertise for the contact. So a subject matter card might look like this:

Politics (national, NH, polls, history)
Contact name
Official title (such as director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center and an associate professor of political science)
Preferred method of contact
telephone number(s)
Preferred time to call 
email address 
Notes: political leanings (if any and if relevant), areas of particular interest, personality notes (likes to be addressed formally as Dr. so-and-so, for example), any other information that will make the interview smoother or more informative. (Has a brother living in Cairo, Egypt who is a political activist there, for example). Requests a link to articles post-publication.
Author of: List Book Titles and Publication Dates
List of previous contacts: This is a list of everytime I've contacted this individual which includes the date of the contact, method (telephone, email, etc), resulting article title(s).

This last bit lets me know whether I am bothering someone too much or under-utilizing a resource. It also allows me review what I've already discussed with this person so I can ask questions like: "In the September of 2010, you said that you thought any sitting president with a disapproval rating greater than 46% might be expected to face challengers in his own party's primary, citing the Kennedy candidacy of 1980, as an example. In your opinion why hasn't such opposition emerged this year?" It also reminds me whether the interview was amicable or hostile, so I know what to expect going in for any future calls.

So that card would be filed under "P" for politics, but would also be duplicated with the contact's name as the first entry and filed that was as well. With this system, I can quickly find a particular individual or I can pull out a list of political or other subject matter experts from which to choose. A database would have searchable fields for area(s) of expertise. Notes fields might be keyword searchable as well. Some might allow active links to the prior articles in which the source was used.

Whatever system you use, keep excellent records of your contacts and sources. They can be used over and over again. That said, you must be prudent in your use of a contact. Most will certainly not want to be contacted every day to respond to Rush Limbaugh's latest rant. Use them when appropriate, but don't wear out your welcome by calling them too often of for trivial or unrelated matters. What is too often? That will depend upon the individual and you'll have to get a feel for each person.

Establishing a Personal Connection

Ideally, you want to develop a personal relationship with each contact so they feel comfortable talking with you. This will allow a more candid conversation during interviews and may result in them actually contacting you when they have something they consider newsworthy. You should definitely make clear to each contact that you would like them to contact you when they have news they think should be heard. There's nothing better than a good story showing up in your inbox unsolicited. If you have a good relationship with your sources you can occasionaly even just call and ask them "What's news?" in their area of expertise and get an impromtu interview and story idea, but don't overuse this technique or use it before you have a comfortable realtionship with the individual or you might scare them off.

The Ettiquette of Interviews

Which brings us to the matter of etiquette. Very few people want to talk openly with, or be helpful to, someone they don't like. Always be polite and professional with your interview sources. Even if the interview is adversarial in nature (they are being misleading or uncooperative), be polite and professional, and act just as if they were cooperating (although, your questions should still dig into the matter and try to reveal the truth), your tone and behavior should not show anger or be insulting or accusatory in any way.

If they are saying something you suspect is false, then confusion while showing you have a knowledge of the topic and can't be (easily) fooled is appropriate: "I'm not sure I understand how you draw that conclusion... The budget, as written and as the President signed it, actually contains a net tax reduction averaging $1150 for each household with income under $250,000 annually, a number which includes 93% of American families, yet you say that he has increased taxes for the average American. How do you support that statement?" That's an appropriate and professional question that will be helpful to your readers, while "You're wrong, the President's budget decreases taxes...." or any accusatory words or tone is generally inappropriate (with a very few exceptions which I may discuss at a later date).  It is an even worse sin, by the way, to accept and print as truth an interviewee's statement that you know to be false without challenging it or providing counter-evidence to the reader.

Aside from a solid command of the language, a good list of reliable sources is a journalist's most valuable tool. Cultivate your sources carefully and they will provide a bountiful yield.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Wrapping it up with a conclusion

Generally, when I write up Q-and-A interviews for Yahoo!, I start with an introduction and then leap into the interview itself, letting that stand for itself. With my latest, however, I tried a different approach and included a conclusion section where I offered my interpretation of the main points of the interview. I think I'll use this format more often. To me, it seems to put a bow on it, as it were, or finish the article more elegantly from a stylistic perspective.  It also gives me a chance to either rebut, clarify or elaborate on anything the speaker may have said during the interview.

Here's the article, based upon an interview with Dr. Ronald Fischer of the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, which was originally titled: Study reveals keys to happiness (which I still like better than the one that Yahoo! substituted, although they did ask permission first, so I no have right to complain...) I am curious, though, which title do you think is better and why?

Monday, June 13, 2011

Finding interview candidates: It's who you know

As an ordinary person, we come into contact with many, many people. Family, friends, co-workers, fellow students, business associates, store clerks, doctors, and the list goes on and on. Some of these contacts, like family, may be very close, but how much time to we take to learn about the others?

The more you know about your friends, colleagues, and the other people with whom you come into contact on a regular basis, the more likely you are to learn something interesting, something that mike make them a good resource for an interview, either now or at a future date.

For example, if you know that one of your co-workers has a private pilot's license to fly small aircraft and owns a share of a Cessna with a group of other people, you have a resource to discuss FAA flight regulation, the requirements for filing flight plans over major cities, the cost of airplane ownership, common maintenance issues, and so on.

Most often, we find out about people, their hobbies, interests, and past experiences by simply chatting with them. As good journalists, we should be adept at asking questions. That's not to say we should pry into the private lives of everyone we know, but when something comes up in conversation, draw them out a little. If you simply show you are interested, most people are willing to talk extensively, especially about things they enjoy or have experienced.

When I worked at Bose, for example, one of my colleagues mentioned that he worked for one of the primary space shuttle contractors and actually had a chance to sit in the pilot's seat during the course of his work. I found this interesting and we talked about it. Later on, as the space shuttle era is coming to a close, I sent him a message through Facebook (we have kept in very loose contact through that avenue since I left Bose a few years ago) and asked if I could interview him for a piece that was requested by Yahoo! News. The result was this article.

That lucky coincidence gave me a source with very specific information and a chance to talk with an old friend for a while. It's networking, but it's also paying attention to people and who they are.

I think most of us would be surprised by the collective histories of the people around us. I recall a high school history class assignment that opened my eyes to this subject: interview a grandparent about the Great Depression. My grandmother was born in 1911 to an ordinary New England family, had little more than a fifth grade education and worked during the depression years. She told me about the job she held, the internal politics of promotions, and provided a wealth of rich information that I never would have suspected she carried with her.

Most of our parents and grandparents, if they are still alive, have lived through important historical events that we never saw. They may have fought in World War II or Viet Nam and carry stories that would make excellent features around Memorial Day. They may have "flash bulb memories" of important events that add historical perspective on anniversaries of those events.

Do you know people who have taken part in protests? You probably do without even knowing it. An interview about the effect the protest had on their life and on the issue they were challenging might add an interesting angle to a report on a current protest on a similar or even completely unrelated issue.

Do you know people whose parents or grandparents came from a country currently undergoing a dramatic transformation (like Egypt or Libya)? What is their perspective on the popular uprisings and the nature of the old regime?

Compelling interview candidates are all around us. We just have to notice them. We can do that by chatting and engaging people in conversation as a matter of habit. The next time you go to the doctor's office, ask her what she thinks of some new study that you read about. The next time you talk to your mechanic, get his opinion of these new hybrid cars- do they make his job more difficult?

On the anniversary of Pearl Harbor Day, call a local nursing home or assisted living center and ask if there are any residents who remember it who would be willing to share their story with a journalist for a news article.

Everyone you know is a wealth of information and experience that's been stored up, and the older they are, the more of these experiences they carry with them. Interview candidates with very specific skills and knowledge surround us every day of our lives. As with any journalistic endeavor, all you have to do is ask the right questions.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Finding interview candidates: Go back to school

College professors, by definition, are experts in the subjects they teach. They can speak knowledgeably about their subjects and current events that fall within their spheres of knowledge. A political science professor can talk about the history of partisanship and compare present levels to those at various points in history for example. An Egyptian studies professor who has lived and studied in Egypt can knowledgeably and credibly discuss public protests and the nature of the government hierarchy of Egypt.

College professors, furthermore, are used to talking and explaining, that’s what they do for a living, after all. It’s almost never difficult to get enough information from an interview with a college professor.
By visiting a university’s website, you can find department heads and often direct contact information for each professor. However, by going to the college’s research or publication page, you’ll often find a media contact who can facilitate a contact between you and the person they consider best-equipped to answer your questions. Furthermore, by perusing the most recently published faculty papers, you can find topics that these professors are probably eager to discuss and have publicized.

So, let's look at an example. I'm just going to pick Wake Forest to see what we can find. If I look at their home page, I see a tab on the header labelled NEWS. Clicking that, I am brought to a page that lists a variety of Wake Forest related news items. These include changes in Wake Forest staff, research published by Wake Forest students and faculty, and anything newsworthy about the school. That's helpful, BUT, in the upper right hand corner of that page, is what we're looking for. There's a box labelled "For the Media: sources, topics, research and more." Bingo.

When I go to this page, I find a cornucopia of useful information. There's a section called Story ideas of the week which includes briefs on things like "Finding the good (or at least the best) in natural disasters" which includes events that journalists can cover directly, including sitting in on special lectures pertaining to newsworthy current events like tornado strikes and political analysis. More importantly, though, there's a section called Experts which lists a sampling of Wake Forest faculty such as sociology professor Robin Simon, author of "The Joys of Parenthood Reconsidered" and lead researcher of a study showing that adults with children are not happier than adults without children. Her link includes her fields of study and areas of expertise, current research, recent publications, a brief bio, and some noteworthy quotes. Not to mention a photo for media use. In short, everything you need to help you decide if she's the right person for your interview on parenting and depression (hint, yes she is).

Aside from the lists of experts and story ideas, the media page also contains fact sheets, news archives, and this very helpful list of media relations contacts (complete with email addresses and phone numbers) who can help you get an interview with any Wake Forest staff or faculty member, or visit to cover an event on site. If you have a Wake Forest or college sports beat or are just covering a college sports scandal story, you might find the Wake Forest Athletics Media Relations page of particular interest. Here, again you find a list of contacts with email address, phone number and area of responsibility of everyone from the Media Relations Directors for each different sport to student volunteer "Gameday Assistants" who can facilitate your coverage of a campus sports event.

Approaching it from the other end of the news spectrum, if I see a story like this one from MSNBC which involves a study by a Wake Forest researcher. I can find the name of the researcher, Anthony Atala, and search for it on the Wake Forest site to come up with this page which includes everything he's ever done at Wake Forest including growing new body parts... There's also a telephone number to call to reach a media relations representative for an interview with Dr. Atala. Many universities will include the direct phone number and email of each individual professor if you prefer to use the direct route, although I recommend going through the media relations rep. if the schools website seems to be suggesting that route as Wake Forest's does.

By developing a relationship with the media relations reps, you can get prioritized access to almost anyone on the staff instead of having to start all over with each professor.

If you email for an interview request, be very clear about who you are and what you want. I always include MEDIA REQUEST in the subject line of any such email. Tell them the general topic of the interview or article, the specific person or the area of expertise to which you'd like access for an interview and don't forget to tell them when you need the interview completed. If you have a deadline you can give them that and say you'd like to have the interview completed by X time on X date so that you have time to write it up and submit it for X date deadline. I generally do not include links to my profile page or any sample articles in the initial request. If they ask, I send them sample articles written in a similar tone to the one I am planning. I don't want to send Dr. Atala a light-hearted article sample on entomaphagy when asking for an interview about regrowing kidneys from stem cells, for example. Keep it simple, professional, brief, and to the point.

Universities and colleges are excellent sources for interview candidates on an amazingly broad variety of topics. Need a legal opinion on the Casey Anthony case? Look up a law professor. Need some information about the failed clinical trial of an immortality pill? Call someone from this list of gerontology research scientists at the University of Washington's Institute on Aging. What does the latest poll mean for control of the House after the 2012 elections? Ask a poli-sci professor. By the way, if you ask a professor from your local university, that adds a nice localization angle for national issues if you are a local Examiner, or have a local Y! News beat.

Remember, unless you are a direct employee of a media outlet, you can not represent yourself as such. You can say that you are a freelance journalist (or writer) working on an article to be published at Yahoo! News (if you have such an assignment or a beat for that topic), but you can't say you're with or from Yahoo! News, or that you are working for Yahoo! News. If your article is for the Yahoo! Contributor Network instead of for a specific assignment you have from Yahoo! News, then say it's for the Yahoo! Contributor Network. The same applies to Examiner and most other similar outlets although you should check the specific rules for each one yourself rather than relying on my say so.

The Cutting Room Floor: I edited this from an earlier draft of the above post, but tacked it on here because it makes a useful point about the willingness of these people to participate in interviews...

Conversely, when you see, in any other publication, TV program, or other outlet, a new study which interests you as a journalist, look for the lead researcher’s name and school affiliation, then go to the school’s website to find contact information for that person or the school’s media contact. If the study gives a contact person other than the lead researcher, it is best to follow that channel rather than try to bypass the suggested contact. By contacting people involved directly in the study, discovery or invention about which you wish to write, you automatically separate your article from that of other outlets. You’ll have material that is absolutely original in the form of unique quotes from the news maker. You’ll be able to ask them questions that lead them down the angle you wish to pursue, and you can discover, in the course of the conversation, ideas and angles that aren’t obvious from the previously published study summary. These are often the easiest interviews to get. These researchers want their work to be noticed. They want the media to publicize what they have done, and their institution wants the same thing. You will find willing partners in the media contacts at universities. If you go through them, you have the opportunity to develop on-going relationships that can facilitate contacts not just with this one interview subject, but with the entire staff of that college or university.

Typical interview preparation

When I was younger, I recall watching hurricane expert Dr. William Gray explain the dynamics of tropical cyclones on television, The Weather Channel, I think. Recently, Y!CN asked if I would interview him about this year's hurricane season forecast for publication on Yahoo! News. In this case, they named the individual they wanted interviewed, but did not have any contact information or ongoing communication with him. It would be left to me to establish that contact and get him to agree to the interview.

As usual, the first thing I did was start researching. I found that he typically issues four forecasts or updates each year. His next update was due in about ten days. If I did the interview right away, the information could become obsolete very quickly. I explained the situation to the folks at Y!CN who gave me the assignment. They agreed that it would be better to wait and get the updated info. I had just completed three Yahoo! News assignments about hurricanes, so I had gained some basic knowledge about The Formation and Behavior of Hurricanes, Hurricane Naming Conventions, and Hurricane Category Ratings. Perhaps that helped the Y!CN team select me for this interview.

Meanwhile, I contacted Dr. Gray and asked whether he would consent to an interview based on his planned June 1st hurricane forecast update. He said that he would be discuss it, just shoot him a message on the morning of June 1st. I also did some more research in the interim.

Dr. Gray, it seems is well known for his views that global warming is a largely natural event with little influence from human activities. He is quite vocal on the topic. He and his hurricane forescasting colleague Dr. Phil Klotzbach have also just adopted a new forecasting method (used in conjunction with other methods). I checked out hurricane season forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, since I had recently seen a Facebook post on the upcoming hurricane season by NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco. I also read through 44 pages of Dr. Gray's last hurricane forecast to familiarize myself with the terminology, format and content of his reports. I made a little cheat sheet with annual averages hurricane stats, NOAA's predictions, Dr. Gray's last forecast, and left room for his new forecast numbers. I also wrote out a draft of the interview questions I intended to ask, based on all that I had learned.

When his report was released on the morning of June first, this advance preparation let me skip to the important parts of the report and understand it so that I could engage in a good discussion with Dr. Gray. I updated my interview questions and called Dr. Gray at the phone number he had provided to me the prior week. I was able to conduct the interview within about an hour of the public release of his updated 2011 hurricane forecast, not coincidentally released ont he first day of the 2011 hurricane season.

In the end, the Y!CN News team thought the article, at over 2500 words was too long. They suggested chopping it into two articles and offered a second assignment for the sub-topic of long-range hurricane activity cycles with a separate generous upfront payment. Furthermore, a tangential topic covered in the interview will likely turn into a beat article on environmental issues, since it was omitted from the other two articles.

The main interview about the 2011 hurricane forecast is here.
The follow-up article about long-term hurricane activity cycles is here.